Wednesday, January 8, 2014

The Not so Uncertain Future of BitCoin

       I like many others are very excited by BitCoin as well as other crypto-currencies.  This is still true as I write this, I still see decentralization as the future of almost all things. 3d printing has the ability to decentralize production. While new developments in energy production as several fronts will potentially make anyone who desires it energy independent.  Even with this optimism BitCoin as I see it lacks future potential as a currency is limited.  It's math nature makes it unsuited to being used as such with our current model of capitalism.  There are some concepts of the nature of currency. Currency is a tool for accounting, its a method to make easy the tracking, and transfer of goods and services. Currency not to be confused with items of inherent value are only useful in the realm of issuance.  So what makes BitCoin unsuited to this task? Mathematically planned maximum number of coins would be all that is needed to see it's future is pretty easy to guess. From the much ballyhooed worlds most powerful decentralized network, to the trading of coins.
      Miners will cease operation all together when the coins are all mined.  With their exit most of the processing power of the network will go with it.  The miners those that have kept up with increase in difficulty will turn their machines to other problems, most of these are what are called asic, or application specific integrated circuit making them unsuitable to any other task.  So there will be a fork or division of the algorithm used as proof of work for mining BitCoins.  Most of the power backing the network gone it's only those trading the coins, and only when they have their machines on with their wallets open to be supporting the network. When trading coins between individuals it's the same as cash no fees, this isn't true when your using it to pay for actual items. The payment processing will take a percentage away every transaction, till the coins are pooled in the wallets of very few. The value of the ideas presented in BitCoin will be realized in the coming of the DAC a digital autonomous corporation.  This is a legal entity that once birthed into the digital world it takes on a life of it's own out of the hands of it's creators just as the coins currently do.  The difference will be these entities will provide a service and live and die on their own merits paying dividends to those active. Some I've seen ideas for are a streaming service combining torrent ideas with bitcoin ideas allowing the videos to be hosted across the network and rewarding those serving data.  We will shortly see the release of many new DAC's reshaping the digital world.
       Bottom line is the planned end of new coins will mean the end of use as currency. It still may hold value, as any "rare" item holds value. A currency though needs wide acceptance, and the amount in circulation has to meet the needs of trade. A fiat currency which by default BitCoin is, needs strict controls on issuance, and maintenance to keep the system the currency supports in motion. That is not to say I'm in favor continuing the current system prevalent in the world with private corporations issuing currencies for nations.  This leads to a whole other set of problems myself, and others have covered many times.

Jack
aka
PanseyBard   

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