Monday, January 13, 2014

Are You Already Obsolete?

       Yet another crazy question?
       Are you sure it's so crazy?
I'd guesstimate 60% or more of the current jobs could be replaced by automation or machine intelligence with current technology.  In the US wages have remained stagnant since the 80's. If you based it on productivity the numbers say minimum wage would be around $20 an hour.  On the surface this seems to be a travesty, is it possible this wage freeze has partially been a bulwark slowing the adoption of automated production methods.  We have a saying "the bottom line" and for most of the worlds corporations profit motive drives all decisions. When or if a machine can do your job for less cost then your currently doing it for, you will be replaced by that machine.  What I see in the world right now is that most service and retail positions could be done by machine. I'll use as an example a fast food joint.  If you walk into your local fast food burger place regardless of the name you see the same thing. Anywhere from 2 to 12 people in various states of activity.  Now these jobs are not what are considered high skill positions, new employees are generally expected to undergo only a few days of training. I don't see it as much of a leap that a smart system could be deployed that would not just take your orders, and make your food.  This smart system would track inventory, submit orders, monitor not just the premises for maintenance but also traffic patterns, as well as other data to increase productivity, and decrease waste. Combined with the emergence of augmented reality technology, you would even be able to see and talk to a very human seeming staff.  Think this is still sci-fi, perhaps this video will start your imagination firing.
     We already see check out stands with no cashiers, again I say as people demand higher wages they are hastening their replacement by machine.  The costs processing power continues to decrease and costs of human workers rise a conjunction is reached then a machine system will be put into place. The first companies to do so will see an advantage, but as adoption becomes the norm we are likely to see the use of a human work force used as a marketing tool.
    Many will take this a threat to civilization, oddly enough it is precisely the opposite effect. As a world civilization we are at a nexus point of development.  By our own scale we are a class 0, we have everything we need other then will to become a class 1.  Class 1 civilizations have reached an equilibrium with their environment, achieving control and understanding of planetary systems as to allow continuation of species till the natural death of the planet. Thing is there is a window of opportunity think of it like reaching the top of an octave. There is that momentary pause of completion before a choice to continue into a new higher octave, or descend back down the octave just traversed.

The choice is ours. the time is now

Jack
aka
PanseyBard   

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